Methodology — how the crisis score is built
SHORT RADAR condenses systemic crisis pressure into two independent metrics from 0 (calm) to 100 (acute crisis) — the Burry lens (US markets) and the European Systemic Crisis Lens (EU/DE). Each lens is a weighted composite of several components. We disclose the components, weights and data sources.
Burry lens — components & weights
Current model weights. The score is the weighted sum of the component values (each 0–100).
| Geopolitics & energy | 12% |
| High-yield spread (credit risk) | 11% |
| Banking sector | 8% |
| Commercial real estate (CRE) | 8% |
| Financial stress index | 7% |
| Yield curve (10Y–2Y) | 7% |
| Event flow (commodities) | 7% |
| Volatility (VIX) | 6% |
| Private credit / BDCs | 6% |
| AI bubble | 5% |
| Unemployment | 5% |
| CRE delinquencies | 4% |
| Market breadth | 4% |
| Options sentiment | 4% |
| Consumer delinquencies | 3% |
| Consumer sentiment | 3% |
European Systemic Crisis Lens — components & weights
European/German perspective (Austrian School / hard-money school of thought).
| Sovereign bonds (Bund / OAT / BTP) | 22% |
| EU banks | 20% |
| Deindustrialization | 16% |
| German real estate | 14% |
| Stagflation / energy | 12% |
| EUR weakness | 10% |
| Hard assets (gold/silver) | 6% |
Short scanner: 40 / 35 / 25
Every short candidate is scored from three weighted blocks (0–100). Only candidates above the score threshold appear as signals — including entry, stop and targets.
40%
Technical
Trend break, distance to the 200-day line, relative weakness, volume and momentum signals.
35%
Fundamental
Leverage, refinancing pressure, sector stress score, delinquencies and earnings quality.
25%
Timing
Trigger-matrix state, options sentiment, insider activity and crisis regime as entry filters.
Trigger thresholds
In addition to the score, we monitor hard thresholds that historically coincided with stress phases.
US lens (Burry Score)
| High-yield OAS | warning > 450 bps · crisis > 600 bps |
| Investment-grade OAS | elevated 150 bps · crisis 300 bps |
| VIX (volatility) | fear > 30 · panic > 40 |
| CRE loan delinquency (banks) | critical > 6% (FRED, quarterly) |
| Yield-curve un-inversion | 10y–2y above 0 after inversion (180-day window) |
| Bank sector stress | sector score > 60 |
| Private credit stress | sector score > 60 |
| OFR Financial Stress Index | warning > 3.0 (0 = historical average) |
| Fed discount window | critical > $25B (SVB pattern) |
| MOVE (bond volatility) | warning > 140 |
| Fed emergency cut | event detection → take-profit signal |
| Unemployment rate | rising 4.5% · recession 6.0% |
EU lens (European Systemic Crisis Lens)
| 10y Bund yield | > 3.5% — the bond market votes no |
| OAT–Bund spread (France) | > 100 bps |
| BTP–Bund spread (Italy) | > 200 bps — fragmentation |
| EU bank drawdown | > 15% average |
| EUR/USD | < 1.05 — dollar shortage |
Data sources
- FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) — macro, credit spreads, volatility, yield curve.
- yfinance — sector and market prices (banks, CRE, private credit, high yield and more).
- SEC EDGAR — public Form 13F filings (Burry / Scion), delayed by ~45 days.
- ECB / Bundesbank / Destatis — European indicators (Bund/OAT/BTP, TARGET2, industry).
Disclosure & conflicts of interest
Equal treatment: All scores, signals and alerts are delivered to every subscriber of the same tier simultaneously and with identical content. There are no personalized recommendations and no individual suitability assessment.
Own positions: The operator may hold positions in discussed instruments (skin in the game). A public, timestamped track record including own-position flags is in the works.
Compensation: SHORT RADAR is funded exclusively by subscriptions. There is currently no compensation from issuers, brokers or third parties. Should partner links be used in the future, they will be labeled in place.
Methodology as of July 2026. Changes to weights or thresholds are documented in the changelog.